
The UK listed sector remains in a much
better place to ride out the current higher rate
environment than the private sector or indeed
many of the European REITs, where leverage is
materially higher. Many of the lessons learned
from the global financial crisis were forgotten,
but, in the UK, lower leverage was not one
of them.
However, that is not to say the UK listed space
isn’t without its issues. Legacy investment
strategies and poor structures have been
exposed. When debt was free, REIT investing
seemed like a one-way bet. However, as
interest rates have normalised, portfolio quality,
debt management, management alignment
and liquidity have come sharply into focus.
Whilst we have already seen some sector
consolidation there are still a number of
listed REITs who are no longer ‘fit for purpose’.
More often, these are small cap, externally
managed with limited sectoral focus and little
shareholder alignment of interest.
We continue to believe that the market will
offer up further opportunities for consolidation
and that as confidence returns, we believe that
public real estate can once again grow. After all,
boards have a duty of care to the shareholders
and investors deserve scalable and efficient
structures that provide opportunities for them
to deploy their significant sums of capital.
Polarisation across real estate
will continue
Technological disruption remains a powerful
force that continues to affect our daily lives in
how we communicate, travel, work and shop.
This will continue to have a profound and
permanent impact on which real estate sectors
win and which ones lose.
As I have already mentioned, we believe
that the structural tailwinds will continue
to provide strong support for logistics,
convenience, healthcare and experiences.
Student accommodation and build-to-rent
seems like it also has longer term structural
support but these are operational sectors that
do not meet our NNN criteria. Data centres
are also an interesting growth sector aligned
to the need for a growing digital infrastructure.
We have some data centres but it is a complex
area with many variables, not least power
constraints and evolving technology.
For the troubled sectors, there remains
significant headwinds. Operational retail
property continues to face challenges as the
consumer pivots further towards an omni-
channel and convenience shopping model.
The shift in spending over the last decade has
resulted in massive value destruction across
large parts of retail real estate, with department
store and shopping centre values largely
decimated. Despite a good recovery from the
pandemic, we still have too much physical
retail property which means that supply often
exceeds demand and the true rental values
are still materially lower than history suggests.
Whilst many landlords will trumpet their
achievements in settling new rents above ERV,
these are mostly set below previous passing
rents or have been materially inflated by capital
contributions and long rent free periods...
much like the London office market.
The adoption of omni-channel models however
continues to afford the retail park market some
stability with rising occupancy, reduced supply
and pricing equilibrium. Whilst these conditions
are not uniform, it is particularly the case around
the strongest geographies, where existing space
is being lost to other higher value alternatives,
like residential. We therefore remain alert and
wide eyed to individual opportunities where
demand/supply metrics are attractive and
asset management initiatives are available to
enhance the NNN income characteristics.
In the retail grocery convenience sector, online
penetration is much lower than that of general
merchandise. As a result, the grocery store
retains its important role in essential spending.
However, performances across grocery real
estate are already polarising as over-sized,
over-rented larger format supermarkets
continue to fight strong competition from
the smaller, right rented, fit for purpose
convenience and discount stores. After years
of rental compounding, we believe that the
best days for larger format supermarkets look
like they are behind them. Shortening leases
are beginning to expose their values; much as
department store valuations did when they
were exposed to true market fundamentals and
their credits failed.
For the office market, outside of London’s
West End, the sector is seeing strong parallels
to shopping centres nearly ten years ago.
New technology, increasing obsolescence and
changing workers’ preferences are creating
structural disruption for offices as work from
home and growing ESG demands impact the
amount, flexibility and quality of office space
that companies require. Hybrid working is going
nowhere and so companies are conscious that
it requires a carrot and stick approach. They are
therefore intensifying their offer with modern
environments and better facilities incorporating
new sustainability requirements. The problem
is that the capital expenditure required is rising
faster than the rents and so this will inevitably
lead to a polarisation of performances and a
large gap between the winners and losers.
Whilst many owners will confidently talk about
their ability to repurpose obsolete offices, in
much the same way as they did with shopping
centres, the outcome is likely to be the same.
Conversion into labs, gyms, nurseries, health
clinics, etc., has limits and more often than
not they don’t justify the capex. After all, most
offices are unsuitable for residential conversion
due to floorplates, staircases and ceiling height
restrictions. The value destruction will be
enormous and, much like the shopping centre
market, the lending banks will end up holding
the keys.
As a result, rental outlook, capex risks and
depreciation will continue to come in to sharp
focus for investors and lenders. We continue to
live in a fast changing world that shows no sign
of slowing down and being on the right side
of structural change is key. After all, you never
know when you need liquidity until it’s too late.
We continue to believe
that the market will offer
up further opportunities
for consolidation.”
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LondonMetric Property Plc Annual Report and Accounts 202425
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